Empire State Review Team 
U.S. Birth Rates and Fertility Trends Amid Proposals for Incentives
Date: April 2025
Current State of U.S. Birth Rates
The most recent statistics indicate a slight increase in U.S. births for 2024, yet experts caution against interpreting this as a reversal of a persistent long-term decline. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported around 3.62 million births in 2024, marking a modest rise of approximately 1% from the previous year’s total of 3.6 million births, which was the lowest figure recorded since 1979.
Long-Term Trends in Fertility Rates
The trends over the past decade suggest pervasive declines in birth rates across various demographics. Following the economic downturn during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, birth rates decreased significantly, with fluctuations observed only sporadically. The COVID-19 pandemic saw another dip in births in 2020, followed by a temporary increase as couples who delayed starting families returned to their plans in the subsequent years.
As of 2024, the fertility rate—a metric indicating births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44—stood at 54.6, a slight increase from 2023. However, this figure reflects a general decline that averaged 2% per year from 2014 to 2020.
Demographic Shift in Parenting Age
In recent decades, the average age of first-time mothers has increased significantly, now around 27.5 years, compared to 21.5 years in the early 1970s. This rise corresponds with a trend of younger women postponing childbirth in favor of advancing their education and establishing careers. Many older women, in contrast, are opting to start families later, which has contributed to variations in birth rates.
Comparative Analysis: Fertility in China
In contrast to the U.S., China is grappling with notably low fertility rates, currently reported at approximately 6.77 births per 1,000 people. This disturbing trend is largely attributed to an aging population exacerbated by years of restrictive policies like the “one-child” policy, which was in effect for 35 years until its relaxation in 2015.
The socio-economic conditions in China mirror those in the U.S., with many young individuals delaying marriage and parenthood due to rising living costs and the pursuit of higher education and professional ambitions.
Proposals for Incentivizing Births in the U.S.
Amid concerns about falling birth rates, discussions are underway within the Trump administration about potential measures to encourage family growth. Suggestions include introducing a $5,000 “baby bonus” for American mothers post-delivery. President Trump has expressed support for this initiative, stating, “Sounds like a good idea to me.”
Looking Ahead
Current initiatives being considered also encompass educational programs aimed at increasing awareness around family planning and reproductive health. The administration hopes these incentives could provide the economic support necessary for families to expand, ultimately impacting the nation’s demographic challenges.
Conclusion
The slight uptick in U.S. births does not immediately suggest a significant turnaround in long-standing fertility trends. Continued analysis of both domestic and international birth rates and the social factors influencing them is crucial. Initiatives introducing financial incentives may play a role in shaping future fertility outcomes and addressing demographic concerns for generations to come.
Source: This article references information from the CDC report released in April 2025 and insights from The New York Times reporting on proposed birth rate incentives.
