Empire State Review Contributor 
Transatlantic airfares have fallen to pre-pandemic levels amid a significant decline in travel from Western Europe to the United States, driven by concerns over U.S. border policies, economic factors like a strong dollar, and geopolitical tensions. In May 2025, overseas arrivals to the U.S. decreased by 2.8% year-over-year, with Western European travel down 4.4%, led by declines from Denmark and Germany. Forward bookings for July indicate a 13% drop, signaling sustained downturns in European-originating traffic.
European airlines such as Lufthansa and Air France-KLM are particularly affected, facing higher operational costs and rerouted flights due to Middle East conflicts. Average first-quarter fares from the U.S. to Europe dropped by 7%, with some routes like Atlanta to London seeing a massive 55% decrease. While U.S. airlines like United and Delta report strong outbound demand, especially from American travelers to Europe, European-originating traffic remains weak.
To counterbalance the slump, carriers are slashing prices and ramping up marketing efforts toward American consumers. Despite temporary upticks—like a 12.1% rise in April—travel from Western Europe remains volatile. Overall, this summer presents challenges for airline profitability on transatlantic routes, though U.S. outbound travel partially mitigates the impact.
The decline in European travel to the U.S. is attributed to several factors, including the strong U.S. dollar making travel more expensive for Europeans, and political concerns stemming from U.S. policies. President Donald Trump’s administration has implemented stricter border policies and engaged in trade disputes, which have contributed to a negative perception of the U.S. among potential European travelers.
In response to the decreased demand, European airlines are adjusting their strategies. Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr acknowledged a “slight weakening” in bookings for U.S. routes and indicated plans to reduce the airline’s transatlantic flight growth in the fourth quarter from 6% to 3% year-over-year. Similarly, Air France-KLM is considering cutting economy fares to boost transatlantic travel if needed.
Despite these challenges, U.S. airlines are experiencing robust outbound demand. Delta Air Lines reported that 80% of its long-haul international demand originates from the U.S., and fares in the region are “significantly higher” than in the rest of the world. United Airlines also noted that while international bookings from Europe fell 6% in the first quarter, U.S.-originating demand compensated for the decline.
Looking ahead, the transatlantic travel market faces uncertainty. While U.S. outbound travel remains strong, the continued decline in European visitors poses challenges for airlines reliant on transatlantic routes. Airlines are closely monitoring booking patterns and may adjust capacity and pricing strategies accordingly to navigate the evolving landscape.
As the summer travel season progresses, the industry will watch closely to see if European demand rebounds or if the current trends persist, potentially reshaping transatlantic travel dynamics for the foreseeable future.
